Russian Retaliation Intensifies

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.7%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Moscow responds to the drone strike with a larger missile and Shahed drone salvo against Ukrainian cities, energy infrastructure, and ports. The response is severe but remains within the Russia-Ukraine theater, limiting broader market spillovers.

What it moves

Industrials+0.5%
Energy+0.4%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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