Possible scenario
Infrastructure Escalation
10%
−1.1%
A follow-on Ukrainian strike or newly disclosed damage hits energy or industrial infrastructure inside Russia, moving the event beyond symbolic attacks on Moscow. This creates a more material geopolitical risk premium, though still short of a systemic crisis.
What it moves
- Energy+0.8%
- Industrials+0.7%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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