Possible scenario
Congressional Repeal Push
20% Chance
Vance's comments become a legislative campaign, with House Republicans proposing to abolish or sharply phase down H-1B admissions. The proposal attracts media attention and some populist support, but business opposition and Senate constraints make full enactment difficult.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -1.6%
- Technology -0.9%
Tickers
- CTSH-1.4%
- -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.