Possible scenario
Administrative Crackdown Intensifies
27% Chance
The administration follows Vance's comments with agency action rather than waiting for Congress, using audits, requests for evidence, prevailing-wage scrutiny, and green-card processing delays. This path is plausible because it lets the White House show movement on immigration while avoiding the higher legal and political hurdle of abolishing H-1B outright.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -1.3%
- Technology -0.9%
Tickers
- CTSH-1.6%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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