Managed Diplomatic De-escalation

Washington and New Delhi keep the dispute contained through diplomatic talks, with the White House avoiding an immediate move to eliminate H-1B visas. This is the most likely path because ending the program would require either legislation or legally vulnerable executive action, while U.S. technology employers and Indian officials have strong incentives to preserve skilled-worker flows.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.