Possible scenario
Republicans Hold House
20% Chance
Trump's rallies prove unusually effective at raising turnout and shifting late undecided Republican voters. The outcome would challenge VoteHub's September 30 projection and preserve a narrow Republican House majority.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Finance +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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