Possible scenario
Democrats Win House
45% Chance
Trump's 32-day push in Texas and Oklahoma energizes core Republicans but does not overcome Democrats' national edge in suburban and Biden-Trump crossover districts. VoteHub's September 30 projection proves directionally correct, with Democrats taking a narrow House majority.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Finance -0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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