Possible scenario
GOP Narrows Deficit
25% Chance
The Texas and Oklahoma blitz improves Republican turnout and fundraising but does not fully erase Democrats' structural advantage. The most likely effect is a tighter race, not a clear Republican takeover.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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