Possible scenario
Marshall Wins Narrowly
32% Chance
Marshall overcomes Hamilton's lead, aided by Trump turnout and the E15 pledge in rural Kansas. The White House treats the result as a mandate to move faster on permanent year-round E15 sales, though legal risk remains.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- GPRE+2.3%
- ANDE+1.2%
- ADM+0.8%
- CASY+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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