Possible scenario
Hawkish Data Confirms
20% Chance
The selloff could be reinforced if incoming U.S. data or Fed communication directly validates the market's fear that policy rates will remain higher for longer. This would keep pressure on long-duration equities, emerging-market assets, and credit-sensitive sectors.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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