Possible scenario
Selloff Extends
40% Chance
The most likely near-term path is further de-risking as investors treat the Asian equity rout as confirmation that higher U.S. rates are tightening global financial conditions. Technology, consumer cyclicals, and leveraged financial names remain most exposed as Treasury yields and the dollar stay firm.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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