Possible scenario
Markets Stabilize
30% Chance
A stabilization scenario is plausible because the prior Core PCE undershoot gives policymakers room to avoid validating the most hawkish interpretation of the selloff. If investors conclude that October is not a done deal, beaten-down Asian growth and technology shares could rebound quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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