Possible scenario
Restart Holds
45% Chance
Saudi Aramco keeps the East-West Pipeline operating after repairs and security sweeps, restoring confidence that Yanbu exports can continue. Markets treat the restart as a partial removal of the immediate supply-risk premium, while still pricing some Houthi attack risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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