Possible scenario
Attacks Resume
30% Chance
The Houthis attempt another strike on the East-West Pipeline or adjacent Yanbu infrastructure, showing that the restart has not eliminated operational risk. The main market effect is a renewed oil-risk premium rather than a systemic financial shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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