Possible scenario
Saudi Security Escalates
15% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds to the attacks by expanding air-defense coverage, hardening pipeline nodes, and potentially coordinating more closely with the United States. This reduces the probability of immediate physical disruption but keeps geopolitical risk in energy prices.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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