Forecast Proves Overstated

its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The market concludes Vitol’s 3 million bpd contraction call is too bearish, either because the calculation includes temporary war effects or because late-year consumption improves. Oil prices recover modestly as traders unwind short positions.

What it moves

Energy+1.2%
Non-Energy Materials+0.4%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up
Oil prices▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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