Possible scenario
Temporary Airspace Curbs
25% Chance
Saudi aviation authorities impose temporary restrictions after renewed drone warnings or air-defense activity near major airports. The disruption is broader than simple rerouting but remains short of a sustained regional airspace shutdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.8%
- Industrials -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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