Possible scenario
Military Escalation
20% Chance
A renewed Houthi missile or drone barrage forces Saudi air defenses into visible action near major civilian aviation hubs. This scenario creates a material geopolitical escalation, with markets pricing higher oil-risk premia and a larger aviation disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.