Possible scenario
Managed Rerouting
40% Chance
US aircraft operators respond to the FAA warning with route-by-route risk reviews, higher cruise altitudes, and selective avoidance of Saudi flight information regions. No immediate new Houthi strike occurs, keeping disruption meaningful for aviation but contained for broader markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
- -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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