Interim Trade Truce

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The two governments announce a temporary truce rather than a final trade deal. This would fit the political need to show progress while leaving difficult disputes over autos, dairy, lumber, metals, and dispute settlement for the formal USMCA review.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals+0.9%
Industrials+0.6%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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