Comprehensive Trade Deal

Washington and Ottawa convert the late-stage talks into a broad agreement that renews core USMCA terms and removes most of the 35% U.S. tariff on Canada. This is the most likely path because both sides have already moved from collapsed talks to publicly signaling momentum, and cross-border manufacturers have strong incentives to lock in relief before year-end.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.