Possible scenario
White House Moderates Raids
27% Chance
Trump’s advisers conclude that the immigration crackdown is damaging Republicans with Latino voters and mixed-status families. The administration keeps its border-security message but quietly reduces high-profile workplace raids and family-separation optics.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- -2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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