Possible scenario
Enforcement Strategy Hardens
18% Chance
Trump and senior advisers decide that backing down would depress the Republican base more than it would recover Latino support. The administration escalates enforcement rhetoric and uses the poll as evidence that media criticism will not change policy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
- +3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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