Possible scenario
Latino Backlash Reshapes Midterms
38% Chance
The most likely political consequence is that Republican candidates in heavily Latino districts distance themselves from Trump’s deportation campaign before the 2026 midterms. Democrats use the 69% disapproval figure to nationalize mixed-status family separations and regain ground in Arizona, Nevada, Texas and California.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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