Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Expands
20% Chance
Riyadh responds with heavier strikes on Houthi missile launch sites, command facilities, and drone storage areas in Yemen. The escalation remains primarily Saudi-Houthi, but it increases the risk premium in oil and regional transport.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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