Possible scenario
Contained Air Campaign
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is continued Houthi missile and drone fire at Riyadh and southern Saudi targets, with Saudi air defenses intercepting most projectiles. Flight disruptions and insurance costs rise, but there is no decisive military breakthrough or broad regional escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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