Possible scenario
Mediated De-Escalation
25% Chance
Oman, backed by Russia and China, converts the current talks into a temporary pause around Riyadh and key Saudi civilian sites. Both sides claim deterrence, allowing a face-saving de-escalation without a final Yemen settlement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Energy -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.