Possible scenario
U.S.-Led Military Containment
32% Chance
Washington and allied navies move from surveillance to active convoy protection, aiming to reopen limited traffic while avoiding a campaign against Iran itself. The key market distinction is whether escorts deter attacks or become targets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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