Possible scenario
Negotiated Partial Reopening
18% Chance
After repeated tanker strikes, Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries push a limited de-escalation formula rather than a comprehensive U.S.-Iran agreement. This path is less likely than continued pressure, but Iran may accept a tactical pause if it extracts humanitarian, sanctions, or diplomatic concessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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