Possible scenario
Prolonged Maritime Interdiction
38% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of controlled but persistent attacks on commercial shipping, with Iran and the IRGC keeping pressure on Washington without immediately triggering a full-scale war. Shipping firms, insurers, and Gulf exporters adjust to a longer disruption rather than a quick reopening.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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