Possible scenario
Results Are Contested
15%
−1.0%
The headline result is challenged by Republican campaigns and Trump-aligned groups in several close races. Most litigation is unlikely to reverse control of Congress, but delays in final certification could produce a short-lived volatility spike.
What it moves
- Technology−1.4%
- Finance−1.3%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- 10-year Treasury yield
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.