Possible scenario
Wider Regional Escalation
22% Chance
The airport deaths could trigger a sharper Saudi response and a broader Houthi attempt to demonstrate reach against Saudi economic targets. This path is less likely than containment but carries larger market risk because Saudi energy infrastructure and Red Sea shipping could be pulled into the conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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