Possible scenario
Renewed Ceasefire Diplomacy
26% Chance
The civilian casualties revive pressure on Riyadh, Muscat, and the United Nations to restore a negotiating channel. The Houthis may use the attacks to gain leverage, while Saudi Arabia has incentives to reduce disruption to Vision 2030 travel and investment plans.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.