Possible scenario
Contained Military Response
38% Chance
Saudi Arabia treats the airport attacks as a serious escalation but avoids a full-scale return to the Yemen war. Riyadh focuses on air-defense deployments, intelligence sharing with the United States, and limited strikes on launch sites rather than a broad ground or air campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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