Possible scenario
Southern Fuel Bottleneck
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Rostov oil hub remains unusable for weeks, forcing Russia to reroute fuel by rail and truck through southern depots. The damage compounds earlier Ukrainian strikes on refining and storage but stays primarily a Russian military-logistics problem rather than an immediate global supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Tickers
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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