Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Cycle
25% Chance
Russia responds to the Rostov damage with a visible retaliation campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, drone workshops, or command nodes. This keeps the conflict on an escalatory path but does not necessarily interrupt global oil exports.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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