War Drags On

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Trump acknowledges the political damage but does not materially change military strategy. Oil markets remain sensitive to Hormuz headlines, and investors continue to price the war as a persistent inflation and risk-premium factor.

What it moves

Energy+1.6%
Consumer Cyclicals−0.9%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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