Congress Constrains Trump

22%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Midterm losses strengthen congressional oversight and make the Iran campaign a central issue in the new Congress. The administration remains in office, but funding, authorizations, and hearings become constraints on military options.

What it moves

Industrials−0.7%
Energy−0.4%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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