Possible scenario
Selective AI Credit Stress
31% Chance
The unwind becomes concentrated in the most leveraged AI compute and data-center borrowers rather than the entire technology sector. Credit markets distinguish between cash-generative chip suppliers and companies dependent on short-term capacity financing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.4%
- Finance -0.9%
- Utilities -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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