Possible scenario
AI Capex Retrenchment
21% Chance
The debt maturity wall triggers a more visible pullback in AI infrastructure spending. Hyperscalers and cloud specialists protect balance sheets by delaying data-center projects, pressuring chip suppliers and power infrastructure expectations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.1%
- Utilities -1.9%
- Industrials -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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