Possible scenario
Orderly Refinancing
38% Chance
Large AI infrastructure borrowers absorb Goldman's warning but still find demand from private credit, banks and investment-grade buyers. Refinancing costs rise, but maturities are extended and the AI trade stabilizes rather than breaking.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Finance +0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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