Possible scenario
Moratoria Spread Wider
25% Chance
Other grid-constrained states follow New York and Texas with temporary data-center permitting pauses. The policy shock would hit AI infrastructure financing, data-center REITs, utilities with growth plans, and hyperscalers with large capacity commitments.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.8%
- Utilities -1.3%
- Finance -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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