Possible scenario
Compromise Permitting Deal
40% Chance
Federal officials and large states respond to the recession warning by negotiating a narrower permitting framework instead of allowing moratoria to spread. This is the most likely path because governors want grid reliability without being blamed for blocking AI investment, construction jobs, and tax revenue.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.1%
- Utilities +1.0%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Finance +0.4%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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