Possible scenario
Pakistan Border Spillover
15% Chance
Iran links the gunmen to Jaish al-Adl networks operating from Pakistan’s Balochistan province and demands action from Islamabad. Both sides have incentives to avoid repeating the January 2024 airstrike exchange, but miscalculation risk rises if casualties mount.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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