Possible scenario
Insurgency Becomes Persistent
25% Chance
The Iranshahr battle becomes part of a rolling campaign across Saravan, Rask, Khash, and Zahedan rather than a one-off clash. The IRGC increases deployments, but militants retain enough mobility to attack police posts and convoys.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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