Possible scenario
IRGC Contains Fighting
45% Chance
Iranian security forces use armored vehicles, drones, and house-to-house raids to break the Iranshahr cell before it can widen attacks across Sistan-Baluchestan. This is the most likely path because Tehran typically responds to Jaish al-Adl-linked violence with concentrated local force rather than a broader campaign.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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