Possible scenario
War Risk Disrupts Projects
28% Chance
The Israel-Iran conflict and related proxy activity spill into energy infrastructure risk. Majors remain interested in reserves, but field work, logistics and insurance costs become more volatile.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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