Possible scenario
Selective Expansion Continues
42% Chance
Oil majors continue to pursue low-cost Middle East reserves while limiting exposure to the most contested assets. Host governments in the UAE, Qatar and Iraq offer security guarantees and fiscal incentives, keeping upstream investment moving despite the regional conflict.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Tickers
- BP+0.7%
- SHEL+0.5%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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