Possible scenario
Host States Accelerate Deals
20% Chance
Middle Eastern producers use the conflict period to lock in Western capital, technology and political ties. Majors gain access to reserves, while host states preserve output growth plans and diversify partner risk.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Tickers
- BP+1.5%
- TTE+1.5%
- +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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