Deterrence Without Launches

Iran uses the Arash-3 announcement mainly as coercive signaling after prior exchanges with Israel and Gulf states. The most likely near-term path is continued parades, exercises, and controlled media releases rather than immediate combat use, because Tehran can gain deterrent value without inviting a large Israeli or U.S. response.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.